Fiscal Cliff Numerology: GOP Dilemma
Now that all the drama (and fun) of the election is past,
our leadership in Washington has to do something it generally doesn’t care
for--making the hard decisions of actually governing.
First up, the Fiscal Cliff. For a little mood music, cue Bach’s Toccata and Fugue in D Minor.
What is a “Fiscal Cliff’?
Well, it is a scary planetary confluence due to occur around January 1, where
the Bush Tax Cuts expire, the Federal Debt Limit is reached, and Sequesters
start to kick in. Most sane people think
it is a Very Bad Thing, and they aren’t wrong; tax increases, severe cuts in
domestic and military spending, and a national default aren’t the best way to
start a new year.
The long term solution is also fairly obvious, but unpleasant. Taxes have to go up, significantly. Military and domestic spending (including
previously sacrosanct entitlement programs) must decrease, significantly. And we all have to accept the reality that
fooling around with the Debt Limit is tantamount to playing Russian Roulette,
except misreading the rules and loading five bullets into six chambers.
So, if the solution is so simple, why are we not getting
there? The short answer is that if
there are smart deal-makers in both parties (and I think there are) they are hamstrung
by both their personal intellectual constructs and their party’s more
doctrinaire ideologues.
Let’s start with the GOP.
In trying to gauge where the GOP’s ideological heart and soul is, I include the following numbers:
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
30
|
9
|
16
|
11
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
23
|
9
|
8
|
38
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
23
|
11
|
5
|
16
|
1
|
27
|
13
|
28
|
10
|
4
|
10
|
2
|
27
|
40
|
23
|
9
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
N/A
|
37
|
28
|
12
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
18
|
N/A
|
12
|
38
|
13
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
32
|
N/A
|
Confused? No
worries-you would need to be as much of a junkie as I am to be able to fill in
the blanks. The above are the results of
the WSJ/NBC Republican Primary polls from July, 2011 through March, 2012. In an act of kindness, I deleted all
references to both Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman. Both were too rational and too nice to have
cracked 6%, so that left the field to:
Date
|
Gingrich
|
Romney
|
Paul
|
Bachmann
|
Perry
|
Santorum
|
Cain
|
7/11
|
8
|
30
|
9
|
16
|
11
|
3
|
5
|
8/11
|
5
|
23
|
9
|
8
|
38
|
3
|
5
|
10/11
|
8
|
23
|
11
|
5
|
16
|
1
|
27
|
11/11
|
13
|
28
|
10
|
4
|
10
|
2
|
27
|
12/11
|
40
|
23
|
9
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
N/A
|
1/12
|
37
|
28
|
12
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
18
|
N/A
|
3/12
|
12
|
38
|
13
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
32
|
N/A
|
Those are pretty remarkable results that seemingly speak to
the awkward embrace of a party with great passion, but no attractive
suitors. Four out of the seven (Romney,
Gingrich, Perry and Cain) held the lead at one point, and Santorum led in at
least three other respected national polls taken in February, 2012. Bachmann, the darling of the Tea Party, led
in a poll taken by PPP in July, 2011. As
to Ron Paul, well, he is Ron Paul—you have to love the consistency of his
support.
So, where did these seven, reflecting the various wings of
the GOP, stand on TARP, the largest government bail-out, and the Debt Limit? Romney and Cain, being the only businessmen
in the group, supported the no-strings-attached bailout for the banks. Naturally,
they also opposed the bailout of Detroit for being insufficiently punitive of the autoworkers. Gingrich was a “no” on
TARP who transitioned into a “reluctant” yes. Perry lobbied for it in 2008,
then developed amnesia during the debates.
Paul, Bachmann, and Santorum were all “no’s”. As to the ultimate Debt Limit increase bill approved
by the House, Bachmann, Paul and Cain were against it. Santorum, who voted five times for an
increase when Bush was in office, got religion and said he was opposed. Gingrich, Perry, and Romney found themselves
wiggling-all three found a safe haven by claiming they were for “Cut, Cap, and
Balance” instead. Nothing like being
against it before you were for it, or is it being for it and against it at the same time? When asked what the practical implications of
their positions were on the debt limit, they all denounced Obama and
fear-mongering.
So, if the heart of the GOP beats for nihilism and economic
chaos, what are the drivers that could cause them to make a deal?
First, big business and the financial services industry have
weighed in on the debt ceiling. They
want it raised and taken off the table. These
folk aren’t stupid; they bet heavily on Romney and the GOP in the last
election, but at the end of the day, they are practical people who are in the
business of making profits, and a default would be bad for business.
Second, the military sequesters make the GOP crazy; they
spent the last three months of the campaign indulging themselves in collective
amnesia and outrage. Sequesters? Never heard of them. Must have been a
sinister Obama plot to drug them all and make them endorse bipartisan
sequesters after the failure of the Supercommittee. Basic to the GOP DNA is robust military
spending regardless of whether there is anything of value to spend it on.
And third, and perhaps most precious, are the sainted Bush
Tax Cuts, without which the very Republic itself would fall. They have already rejected an Obama proposal to
extend them for everyone making under $250,000 per annum. Unacceptable; the job creators cannot pay more. Take it from the old, the infirm, the poor,
or just the wretched middle class.
And therein lies the problem for the Republicans. Stick to
your political religion, block the increase in the debt ceiling, and your
primary source of funds is angry. Do
nothing on the Sequester and on taxes, and the military gets cut and the rich
pay more. That should be enough to send
a chill down the staunchest elephant’s neck and maybe (maybe) bring them to the
table.
As the great 19th Century biologist Thomas Henry
Huxley once said; “The great tragedy of Science — the slaying of a beautiful
hypothesis by an ugly fact.”
On the other hand, Huxley was an early supporter of Darwin,
so what could he possibly know?
MM
